Weekend predictions

Chiefs vs Saders is pretty tough, Bulls vs Brumbies even tougher, but how the hell does one make a call on the Kings vs Lions game? All the weekend teams, times, refs and predictions.

Tank Lanning

A little more tricky in terms of pink tickets given that we have both a Friday and Saturday evening game. You simply have to watch the first of the promotion / relegation matches though. So perhaps that one is with mates at a pub after work while offering to remain in some sort of form to participate in supper with the in-laws on Saturday? Fat chance, so that means kid duty on Saturday morning, the Chiefs on a gym bike while said kid hits the V-Club, shopping for curtains with management, and a quiche type lunch at the coffee shop in the mall. But that should then free you up for some proper Coleman emptying and Weber stuffing in the build up to the Bulls game at 5. Beste wense mense …

Friday 26 July

19:10 Kings vs Lions, Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, PE

Referee: Jaco Peyper

Assistant referees: Jason Jaftha, Sindile Mayende

TMO: Deon van Blommestein

So after all the politicking, and all the discussion as to whether this game would actually take place, here we are. A 2 match series to determine which of the side gets to play Super Rugby next year. It’s a truly shambolic situation, but that is not the topic for today! Not too much can be read into the result, but these sides have met before, earlier in the year, when the Lions prevailed 41-31 at Ellis Park. The Lions have also won the Vodacom Cup convincingly, and had good wins over Samoa, WP, the Blue Bulls and the Sharks, and looked impressive. This while the Kings have been gutsy beyond measure in securing their three wins in their inaugural Super Rugby season. Their 88.7% tackle success ratio is the highest in the entire tournament! They are a side that simply does not know how to give up. The key, of course, is not the comparison of the relative success of the Lions with the relative failure (in terms of actual match results) of the Kings, but the comparison of the opponents they have been up against. Will the relative freshness of the Lions make up for not having the intensity that the Kings have endured week in and week out during the tournament? Darron Nell captains the Kings after Andries Strauss broke his hand at practice, and that is a blow to the home side. But there is a fair amount of consistency to the team that has been selected, with many pairings having played together throughout the season. This while Lions coach Johan Ackermann has made the massive call to select Elton Jantjies at flyhalf. Not only has Jantjies not been at his best for the Stormers, but also comes into the side as a relative outsider. It really is a tough game to call.

My prediction: Kings by 3

Kings: 15. SP Marais, 11. Marcello Sampson, 13. Ronnie Cooke, 12. Shane Gates, 14. Hadleigh Parkes, 10. Demetri Catrakilis, 9. Shaun Venter, 8. Jacques Engelbrecht, 7. Wimpie van der Walt, 6. Cornell du Preez, 5. David Bulbring, 4. Darron Nell (captain), 3. Kevin Buys, 2. Bandise Maku, 1. Schalk Ferreira

Bench: 16. Charl du Plessis, 17. Hannes Franklin, 18. Steven Sykes, 19. Devin Oosthuizen, 20. Nicolas Vergallo, 21. George Whitehead, 22. Waylon Murray

Lions: 15. Ruan Combrinck, 14. Deon van Rensburg, 13. Stokkies Hanekom, 12. Dylan des Fountain, 11. Anthony Volmink, 10. Elton Jantjies, 9. Michael Bondesio, 8. Warren Whiteley, 7. Derrick Minnie, 6. Jaco Kriel, 5. Franco van der Merwe, 4. Hendrik Roodt, 3. Julian Redelinghuys, 2. Martin Bezuidenhout, 1. JC Janse van Rensburg

Bench: Robbie Coetzee, Ruan Dreyer, Willie Britz, Warwick Tecklenburg, Ross Cronje, Marnitz Boshoff, Chrysander Botha

Saturday 27 July

09:35 Chiefs vs Crusaders, Waikato Stadium, Hamilton

Referee: Steve Walsh

AR1: Glen Jackson, AR2: Chris Pollock

TMO: Glenn Newman

These men from Christchurch sure do understand timing. It is almost phenomenal how often they get it right. Throw in the fact that the Crusaders demolished the Chiefs 43-15 in Christchurch earlier this month, hammered the reds last weekend, and this match seems a foregone conclusion. But … And there is always a but … The Waikato based Chiefs did win the earlier conference derby 28-19, and courtesy of their deserved spot on top of the log, they are back at home this weekend. Kiwi commentator Scotty Stevenson, tweeted the following stats: “15/17 SuperRugby titles won by 1st or 2nd best attack during the regular season. 12/17 by 1st. 1st in 2013 = Chiefs” … And he is right about the Chiefs. They lead the tournament in terms of tries scored (50), average points scored per game (28.6), and clean breaks (148). However, on 48 tries scored this year and an average of 28.5 points scored per game, second only to the Chiefs, come the men in black and red. With Superstars Israel Dagg, Kieren Read and Dan Carter in the run on XV, and rugby union legend Richie McCaw on the bench, this probably negates the home ground advantage the Chiefs will enjoy, so it comes down to the two best attacking sides in the tournament going head to head. I am backing the visitors, but would not put my kid’s piggy bank on it, let alone the house.

My prediction: Crusaders by 7

Chiefs: 15. Gareth Anscombe, Lelia Masaga, Charlie Ngatai, Andrew Horrell, Asaeli Tikoirotuma, Aaron Cruden, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8. Matt Vant Leven, Tanerau Latimer, Liam Messam, Brodie Retallick, Craig Clarke (c), Ben Tameifuna, Hika Elliot, Toby Smith.

Bench: Rhys Marshall, Ben Afeaki, Michael Fitzgerald, Sam Cane, Augustine Pulu, Bundee Aki, Robbie Robinson.

Crusaders: 15. Israel Dagg, Tom Marshall, Ryan Crotty, Tom Taylor, Zac Guildford, Dan Carter, Andy Ellis, 8. Kieran Read (c), Matt Todd, George Whitelock, Sam Whitelock, Luke Romano, Owen Franks, Corey Flynn, Wyatt Crockett.

Bench: Ben Funnell, Joe Moody, Luke Whitelock, Richie McCaw, Willi Heinz, Tyler Bleyendaal, Adam Whitelock.

17:05 Bulls vs Brumbies, Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria

Referee: Craig Joubert

AR1: Jonathan Kaplan, AR2: Marius Jonker

TMO: Shaun Veldsman

Will the Bulls scrum hold? That is the key question. Frans Ludeke has taken out some insurance by putting two props on the bench – which has 5 forwards on it, so he knows this to be a key part of the game, and is no doubt very aware of his side’s frailty in this department. Hold out up front, and the half back combination of Francois Hougaard and Morne Steyn will do everything in their power to play the game in the Brumbies half, hoping to use the Steyn boot to punish any mistakes from the likes of George Smith and company. Jake White says he is well aware that his side is the most penalised in the competition, but unlike Bok coach Heyneke Meyer, he says it is well worth it given the quality of the ball you get to work with via a turnover at the breakdown. Hence the battle between Smith and Deon Stegmann being another key decider in a game that will not come close to being pretty. The Brumbies have not won at Loftus since 2006, and since then it has been 28 -17 (2008), 50 – 32 (2010) and 36 -34 (2012) to the home side. The Brumbies do have the minor satisfaction of knowing, however, that they won the latest encounter 23-20 at Canberra Stadium in March. It was a real nail-biter, though, won via a Christian Lealiifano 45-metre penalty after the hooter. Neither side is in great form (the Bulls having been crushed by the Stormers, and the Brumbies squeezing past the Cheetahs), and with the Brumbies playing the same territorial game the Bulls do, the primary phases will be important. In terms of lineout success, the Bulls are at 89.5% (best in the tournament), and the Brumbies at 87.1% (6th best). In terms of scrum success, the Bulls are 2nd worst in the tournament at 85%, while the Brumbies are 2nd best at 92%. See what I mean about the scrum being key! I say Fortress Loftus will play her part.

My prediction: Bulls by 7

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Dewald Potgieter (captain), 7 Jacques Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Grant Hattingh, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dean Greyling

Bench: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Morne Mellett, 19 Paul Willemse, 20 Jono Ross, 21 Jano Vermaak, 22 Jürgen Visser

Brumbies: 15. Jesse Mogg, 14. Henry Speight, 13. Tevita Kuridrani, 12. Christian Lealiifano, 11. Clyde Rathbone, 10. Matt Toomua, 9. Nic White, 8. Ben Mowen (captain), 7. George Smith, 6. Peter Kimlin, 5. Sam Carter, 4. Scott Fardy, 3. Ben Alexander, 2. Stephen Moore, 1. Scott Sio

Bench: 16. Siliva Siliva, 17. Ruan Smith, 18. Fotu Auelua, 19. Colby Faingaa, 20. Ian Prior, 21. Andrew Smith, 22. Joe Tomane