Weekend predictions

Tank Lanning

It’s one up on the complete apathy I felt last week, but people are certainly not completely appeased by the performance against the Irish last weekend. And given the first half shambles, one can understand, but it was a pretty gutsy second half performance that saw the Bok defence taken up a notch or three. Not particularly pretty though, but that seems the absolute least of Heyneke Meyer’s concerns. This man just wants to win … That entertainment lark can be left to the All Blacks …

And entertain they did as they put pay to this weekend’s Bok opponents, the Scots. The kilt wearing haggis and deep fried Mars bar eaters did manage to score three tries against the All Blacks though. They are a side that have taken a leaf out of the New Zelander’s book, so are fairly nifty on attack, but obviously lack the personnel donning the silver fern.

Against the Bok defence, that Scottish attack will be blunted, and it will frustrate the hell out of them. Mistakes will be made, and the Boks will pounce … Both Vermeulen and Louw have been very good on the floor, and they must make ready to feast on these Scottish mistakes.

Up front, with Euan Murray back at tighthead for the Scots, it will probably be an even contest, so it will be at the lineout that the Boks will want to dominate. Against the Irish, they were frustrated by what Wayne Barnes allowed the visitors to do come the sacking of the jumper, and this thwarted the rolling maul – probably the Boks most potent weapon (sadly, if I had to be honest). It will be interesting to see how the Boks handle that this week …

I just hope Lambie is given a little more license, and that he steps up to the plate, unlike last week. Given some sort of dominance up front, a quick service from Pienaar, a willingness from Lambie, and we could see a little magic from new boy De Jongh, who has some proper dancing shoes on him.

But alas, I expect something a little more turgid than that, with the Bok defence eventually just wearing down a brave Scottish effort …

16:30 Scotland vs South Africa, Edinburgh
Referee: George Clancy (Ireland)
Assistants: John Lacey (Ireland), Christophe Berdos (France)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)
 
My prediction: South Africa by 9

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Lamont, 13 Nick de Luca, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Greig Laidlaw, 9 Mike Blair, 8 David Denton, 7 Kelly Brown (captain), 6 Alasdair Strokosch, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Ryan Grant
Bench: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Kyle Traynor, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Alastair Kellock, 20 John Barclay, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Ruaridh Jackson, 23 Peter Murchie

South Africa: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp
Bench: 16. Schalk Brits, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 CJ van der Linde, 19 Flip van der Merwe, 20 Marcell Coetzee, 21 Morné Steyn, 22 Jaco Taute, 23 Lwazi Mvovo

And to the rest of the weekend’s rugby …

Friday:

21:30 Wales vs Samoa, Cardiff
Referee: Pascal Gauzere (France)
Assistants: Wayne Barnes (England), Jérôme Garces (France)
TMO: Giulio De Santis (Italy)

My prediction: Wales by 4

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Ashley Beck, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Ryan Jones (captain), 5 Ian Evans, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Aaron Jarvis, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Paul James.
Bench: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Gethin Jenkins, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Sam Warburton, 21 Tavis Knoyle, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Scott Williams.

Samoa: 15 Faatoina Autagavaia, 14 Paul Perez, 13 George Pisi, 12 Paul Williams, 11 David Lemi (captain), 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Taiasina Tuifua, 7 Maurie Fa’asavalu, 6 Ofisa Treviranus, 5 Filo Paulo, 4 Daniel Leo, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Ole Avei, 1 Sakaria Taulafo.
Bench: 16 Ti’i Paulo, 17 Villiamu Afatia, 18 James Johnston, 19 TBA, 20 Tivaini Fomai, 21 Jeremy Su’a, 22 Johnny Leota, 23 Robert Lilomaiava.

Saturday:

16:00 Italy vs New Zealand, Rome
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)
Assistants: Craig Joubert (South Africa), Peter Allan (Scotland)
TMO: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)

My prediction: New Zealand by 38

Italy: 15 Andrea Masi, 14 Giovanbattista Venditti, 13 Tommaso Benvenuti, 12 Alberto Sgarbi, 11 Mirco Bergamasco, 10 Luciano Orquera, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (captain), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Francesco Minto, 4 Antonio Pavanello, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lo Cicero.
Bench: 16 Davide Giazzon, 17 Alberto De Marchi, 18 Lorenzo Cittadini, 19 Quintin Geldenhuys, 20 Mauro Bergamasco, 21 Robert Barbieri, 22 Tobias Botes, 23 Luke McLean.

All Blacks: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Hosea Gear, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Ali Williams, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Bench: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ben Franks, 19 Sam Whitelock, 20 Victor Vito, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Dan Carter, 23 Cory Jane.

 
16:30 England vs Australia, London
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistants: Nigel Owens (Wales), Mathieu Raynal (France)
TMO: Jim Yuille (Scotland)
 
My prediction: England by 7

England: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Charlie Sharples, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Danny Care, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Chris Robshaw (captain), 6 Tom Johnson, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Tom Palmer, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Joe Marler.
Bench: 16 David Paice, 17 David Wilson, 18 Mako Vunipola, 19 Joe Launchbury, 20 Tom Wood, 21 Ben Youngs, 22 Owen Farrell, 23 Mike Brown.

Australia: 15 Berrick Barnes, 14 Digby Ioane, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Ben Tapuai, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Bench: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 James Slipper, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Radike Samo, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Brett Sheehan, 22 Mike Harris, 23 Drew Mitchell.

19:30 Irish Wolfhounds vs Fiji, Dublin
Referee: Leighton Hodges (Wales)
Assistants: Neil Hennessy (Wales), Sean Brickell (Wales)
TMO: Gareth Simmonds (Wales)

 
20:00 Tonga vs USA, Cardiff
Referee: Francisco Pastrana (Argentina)
Assistants: Tim Hayes (Wales), Wayne Davies (Wales)
Assistants: Paul Adams (Wales)

 
22:00 France vs Argentina, Paris
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistants: Jaco Peyper (South Africa), David Changleng (Scotland)
TMO: Carlo Damasco (Italy)

My prediction: France by 3

France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Wesley Fofana, 13 Florian Fritz, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 11 Vincent Clerc, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Fulgence Ouedraogo, 6 Yannick Nyanga, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Pascal Pape (captain), 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski, 1 Yannick Forestier.
Bench: 16 Benjamin Kayser, 17 Thomas Domingo, 18 Vincent Debaty, 19 Jocelino Suta, 20 Damien Chouly, 21 Morgan Parra, 22 Francois Trinh-Duc, 23 Yoann Huget.

Argentina: 15 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, 14 Horacio Agulla, 13 Gonzalo Tiesi, 12 Marcelo Bosch, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (captain), 5 Julio Farias Cabello, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Bench: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Nahuel Lobo, 18 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 19 Tomas Vallejos, 20 Tomas de la Vega, 21 Tomas Cubelli, 22 Gonzalo Camacho, 23 Joaquin Tuculet.

 
22:15 Canada vs Russia
Referee: Lourens van der Merwe (South Africa)
Assistants: Tim Hayes (Wales), Wayne Davies (Wales)
Assistants: Paul Adams (Wales)
 
 
And a few Bok stats and facts courtesy of SARU:

Jean de Villiers will extend his record as the most-capped Springbok centre, with his 68th Test in that position for South Africa.

Gurthrö Steenkamp, who is back in the team, holds the record for the most Test tries by a Springbok prop, with six.

Replacement flyhalf Morné Steyn is not only the most capped Springbok No 10 ever, with 40 Tests at pivot, but also holds the record for the most career tries in Tests as a flyhalf, with seven.

Morné needs 14 points to reach 500 career points in Tests for the Springboks.

CJ van der Linde, who started last week as a late replacement for Tendai Mtawarira, will earn his 75th Springbok cap if he gets game time, which would make him the 10th Springbok to play in 75 Tests. CJ is also the most capped Springbok against Scotland in the squad, with five Tests against them.

Should CJ be used as a substitute, he will join Ruan Pienaar on 35 Tests as a substitute, the second most by a Springbok.

In the starting line-up, only Ruan Pienaar (three penalty goals) and Willem Alberts (one try) have scored points against Scotland in previous Tests. Morné Steyn kicked four penalty goals in the last Test against Scotland in 2010.

Only Jean de Villiers, Francois Hougaard and Jannie du Plessis will have started in all Springbok Test matches in 2012.

George Clancy of Ireland is the referee. In the six Tests he’s refereed in involving South Africa, the Springboks have won four and lost two.

Springbok Test match records at Murrayfield against Scotland:
Most points – 26 by Percy Montgomery (2t, 8c) in 1997.
Most tries – two each by six players – Chris Koch, Joost van der Westhuizen, Percy Montgomery, James Small, André Vos and Bryan Habana.
Most conversions – eight by Percy Montgomery in 1997.
Most penalty goals – four by Morné Steyn in 2010.
Most drop goals – three by Jaco van der Westhuyzen in 2004.