What are the chances of the Scots pulling off their 6th win over the Boks this weekend? BetFlash will give you 6/1 on that happening. Not the worst punt in the world!
Tank Lanning
Amongst another ream of international rugby, including the corker that sees Uruguay take on Spain (good luck with that one on SuperBru), I am pretty damn chuffed to see BetFlash focussing on just the 4 biggies of the weekend.
Five changes to the Bok side, three of which are in the tight five. No one knows how Bakkies is going to go after spending time with Dad’s Army in Toulon, while Steenkamp and Strauss definitely weaken a front row that sees Malherbe getting just his second start at tighthead after doing OK on the skating rink that was the Cardiff pitch last week. Certainly a few question marks there.
And with the coin landing on tales this week, Lambie gets a start at flyhalf after proving last week that Steyn is without doubt the best man for the job at the moment. This while Le roux shores up the back with the rusty JP to his left. I have a feeling both will flourish, but there is definitely enough doubt to make the 6/1 odds you will get on a Scotland win worth a little flutter …
Scotland 6/1, Draw 27/1, South Africa 1/14
No money to be made on a Bok win, and with draws being like hen’s teeth, a ballsy R50 on the Scots could net you 6 pizzas on the Butlers Sunday evening Double Deal to help ease the pain of a Bok loss!
The other 3 way odds for the weekend look less inviting:
England 11/2, Draw 23/1, New Zealand 0.11
Ireland 27/20, Draw 19/1, Australia 13/20
Wales 2/10, Draw 22.5, Argentina 3.65
Sure the Poms got one past the All Blacks last year, but in Dan Carter’s 100th Test, and with an element of revenge in the mix, I cannot see the men in white pulling a fast one like that again. But one can never say never, and at 11/2, a R20 flutter will pay for your Butlers Double Deal …
How about these little FlashPots to tickle your fancy:
NZ, WAL, AUS, SA – 11/10
NZ, WAL, IRE, SA – 2/1
NZ, ARG, AUS, SA – 7/1
ENG, WAL, AUS, SA – 10/1
ENG, WAL, IRE, SA – 12/1
NZ, WAL, IRE, SCO – 15/1
ENG, ARG, AUS, SA – 40/1
ENG, ARG, IRE, SCO – 250/1
Argentina getting past Wales to give you 7/1 odds is not a bad option? Throw in a Pom upset and you are getting 8 Butlers pizzas on Sunday night for a R10 bet. Upsets in all 4 games and you can probably buy butlers with a flutter at 250/1!
And after the Bok’s 24-15 win over Wales last weekend, the other 2 Bok tour FlashPots are starting to take shape. The first one is the total points difference between the Boks and all of Wales, Scotland and France in the 3 games:
SA to win by 8 to 11 – 25/1 (Was 3.25 last week)
SA to win by 12 to 15 – 15/1 (Was 3/1)
SA to win by 16 to 19 – 11/2 (Was 5/1)
SA to win by 20 to 23 – 3/1 (Was 7/2)
SA to win by 24 to 28 – 0.7 (No odds last week)
SA to win by 29 to 35 – 0.3 (None)
And the other FlashPot is the total points to be scored by the Boks in all 3 of their games on tour:
SA Total Points 50 to 54 – 20/1 (4/1 last week)
SA Total Points 55 to 59 – 15/1 (7/2)
SA Total Points 60 to 64 – 10/1 (3/1)
SA Total Points 67 to 71 – 5/1 (5/2)
SA Total Points 72 to 77 – 7/2 (2.75)
SA Total Points 78 to 83 – 2/1 (4/1)
SA Total Points 84 to 88 – 5 (Same)
The Boks would probably need to lose a game in order to get the 25/1 odds on SA to win by 8 to 11, and that is unlikely. But both the Scotland and France games could be tight, bringing the 12-15 point margin at 15/1 into play.
While the total points scored could easily sneak into the 50-54 range, especially if the games are tight, and the crappy weather up north remains in play … And at 20/1, that is pretty spicy.
R20 on each and you walk away with R700 if they come off. Now that is closing in on being able to feed all your mates with extra mature rump from Food Lovers at the first braai of Super Rugby next year!
All above odds available on the BetFlash site …
My weekend predictions:
Italy v Fiji – Italy by 12
Wales v Argentina – Wales by 7
England v New Zealand – New Zealand by 15
France v Tonga – France by 9
Ireland v Australia – Australia by 4
French Barbarians v Samoa – French Barbarians by 7
Japan v Russia – Japan by 5
Georgia v USA – Georgia by 2
Romania v Canada – Romania by 3
Uruguay v Spain – Uruguay by 7
Scotland v South Africa – South Africa by 16
Times and teams for the TV games:
Saturday 16 November
16:00 Italy vs Fiji, Cremona
Italy: Luke McLean; Giovambattista Venditti, Gonzalo Canale, Luca Morisi, Tommaso Iannone; Luciano Orquera, Edoardo Gori; Sergio Parisse (capt), Mauro Bergamasco, Alessandro Zanni; Valerio Bernabo, Quintin Geldenhuys; Martin Castrogiovanni Leonardo Ghiraldini, Michele Rizzo
Bench: Davide Giazzon, Matias Aguero, Lorenzo Cittadini, Joshua Furno, Manoa Vosawai, Tobias Botes, Tommaso Allan, Michele Campagnaro
Fiji: Metuisela Talebula; Timoci Nagusa, Asaeli Tikoirotuma, Nemani Nadolo, Napolioni Nalaga; Serenaia Bai, Nemia Kenatale; Sakiusa Matadigo, Akapusi Qera (capt), Dominiko Waqaniburotukula; Wame Lewaravu, Apisai Naikatini; Setefano Somoca, Viliame Veikoso, Jereremaia Yanuyanutawa
Bench: Seremaia Namaralevu, Campese Ma’afu, Manasa Saulo, Sisa Koyamaibole, Malakai Ravulo, Nikola Matawalu, Waisea Luveniyali, Adriu Delai
16:30 Wales vs Argentina, Millennium Stadium
Wales: 15-Leigh Halfpenny; 14-George North, 13-Cory Allen, 12-Scott Williams, 11-Liam Williams; 10-Dan Biggar, 9-Mike Phillips; 8-Toby Faletau, 7-Justin Tipuric, 6-Sam Warburton (capt); 5-Alun Wyn Jones, 4-Bradley Davies; 3-Rhodri Jones, 2-Richard Hibbard, 1-Gethin Jenkins
Bench: 16-Ken Owens, 17-Paul James, 18-Samson Lee, 19-Luke Charteris, 20-Ryan Jones, 21-Lloyd Williams, 22-James Hook, 23-Ashley Beck
Argentina: 15-Joaquin Tuculet, 14-Horacio Agulla, 13-Marcelo Bosch, 12-Santiago Fernandez, 11-Santiago Cordero, 10-Nicolas Sanchez, 9-Martin Landajo; 8-Juan Manuel Leguizamon (captain), 7- Julio Farias Cabello, 6-Pablo Matera, 5-Patricio Albacete, 4-Manuel Carizza, 3-Maximiliano Bustos, 2-Eusebio Guinazu, 1-Marcos Ayerza
Bench: 16-Santiago Iglesias, 17-Nahuel Lobo, 18-Matias Diaz, 19-Tomas Lavanini, 20-Leonardo Senatore, 21-Tomas Cubelli, 22-Gabriel Azcarate, 23-Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
16:30 England vs New Zealand, Twickenham
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Joel Tomkins, 12 Billy Twelvetrees, 11 Ben Foden, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Chris Robshaw (captain), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Joe Marler.
Bench: 16 Tom Youngs, 17 Matt Mullan, 18 David Wilson, 19 Geoff Parling, 20 Ben Morgan, 21 Ben Youngs, 22 Toby Flood, 23 Alex Goode.
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Charles Piutau, 13 Ben Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Bench; 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Steven Luatua, 21 Tawera Kerr Barlow, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Ryan Crotty.
19:00 France vs Tonga, Le Havre
France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Sofiane Guitoune, 13 Gaël Fickou, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Maxime Medard, 10 Remi Tales, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Damien Chouly, 7 Fulgence Ouedraogo, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (captain), 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sebastian Vahaamahina, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski, 1 Yannick Forestier.
Bench: 16 Benjamin Kayser, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Rabah Slimani, 19 Pascal Pape, 20 Bernard Le Roux, 21 Jonathan Pelissie, 22 Frederic Michalak, 23 Mathieu Bastareaud.
Tonga: TBA
19:45 Ireland vs Australia, Lansdowne Road
Ireland: 15-Rob Kearney, 14-Tommy Bowe, 13-Brian O’Driscoll, 12-Luke Marshall, 11-Fergus McFadden, 10-Johnny Sexton, 9-Eoin Reddan, 8-Jamie Heaslip, 7-Sean O’Brien, 6-Peter O’Mahony, 5-Devin Toner, 4-Paul O’Connell, 3-Mike Ross, 2-Rory Best, 1-Cian Healy
Bench: 16-Sean Cronin, 17-Jack McGrath, 18-Stephen Archer, 19-Mike McCarthy, 20-Kevin McLaughlin, 21-Conor Murray, 22-Ian Madigan, 23-Robbie Henshaw
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Ben Mowen (captain), 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 James Horwill, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 James Slipper.
Bench: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Benn Robinson, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Sitaleki Timani, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Nic White, 22 Christian Leali’ifano, 23 Joe Tomane.
Sunday 17 November
17:00 Scotland vs South Africa, Murrayfield
Scotland: 15 Sean Maitland, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Duncan Taylor, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Ruaridh Jackson, 9 Greig Laidlaw (captain), 8 David Denton, 7 John Barclay, 6 Alasdair Strokosch, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Moray Low, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson
Bench: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Ryan Grant, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Jonny Gray, 20 John Beattie, 21 Chris Cusiter, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Max Evans
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts/Siya Kolisi, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Flip van der Merwe, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Adriaans Strauss, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp
Bench: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Tendai Mtawarira 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Marcell Coetzee, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Morné Steyn/AN Other, 23 JJ Engelbrecht
