Weekend predictions

Both teams unchanged for the final, with Jake’s Brumbies trying to do what only the Crusaders have achieved and win a final away from home. The weekend’s teams, times and predictions.

Tank Lanning

Another simple pink ticket weekend … In fact, I would suggest that you are with the wrong partner if you have to bow and scrape to watch two games of rugby on a Saturday. Lions vs Kings on the PVR for me as Vics vs Ikeys at Coetzenberg with beers on the bus home taking precedence …

As per the SuperBru site – Please note that the Win Point increases to 3 for the Final. All other scoring variables remain the same …

So with 3.25 points separating the top 11 on the Front Row Grunt S15 leaderboard, all 11 have a theoretical chance of bringing home the bacon. Should there be an upset of course …

A reminder of the bacon on offer from our cool sponsors …

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• 5 cases for 1st
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• 2 cases for 3rd

And from Coleman, stainless steel cooler boxes valued at R 2750 each, and outdoor chairs valued at R 940 each!

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For pics of the Coleman goodies, CLICK HERE

To the weekend then …

Saturday 03 August

09:35 Chiefs vs Brumbies, Waikato Stadium, Hamilton

Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)

Assistant referees: Chris Pollock (New Zealand), Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)

Television match official: Vinny Munro

After preaching about how it’s the side with the best attacking stats that normally brings home the bacon in the key Super Rugby encounters, I did not back my advice, instead going with the Crusaders momentum and form. But in a truly monumental effort, the Chiefs proved that attack stat correct, beating the only side who I believe could have beaten the Chiefs at home. 15 out of 17 Super Rugby titles have been won by the 1st or 2nd best attack during the regular season. 12 out of 17 by the 1st. And the defending champs lead the tournament in terms of tries scored (50), average points scored per game (28.6), and clean breaks (148). This week they again play at home, in front of 25 000 cow bell ringing Chiefs fans. Winning their third title on Saturday will take another mammoth effort from Jake White’s Brumbies – their victory at Loftus was only the 7th time in 59 play-offs that a team has won any knock-out encounter on foreign soil. And it has happened once in 17 Finals – when the Crusaders beat the Brumbies in 2000. The Brumbies can definitely score tries though – they are third on the tournament list on 45 tries, but on all the other attack stats like defenders beaten, offloads, and clean breaks, they hover mid table. They do have George Smith though, and his battle with Liam Messam will go a long way to deciding who rules the all important breakdown. And they can scrum. Referee Craig Joubert let tighthead prop Ben Alexander get away with illegal binding while penalising the Bulls last week. If he does the same again in Hamilton, it will be a huge advantage to the visitors. But the Chiefs, unlike the Bulls, are not perceived to have a week scrum, so I see Joubert blowing it a little more fairly. It’s too tough a challenge for the Brumbies. Surely?

My prediction: Chiefs by 16

Chiefs: 15 Gareth Anscombe, 14 Lelia Masaga or Robbie Robinson, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Andrew Horrell, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant Leven, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (captain), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Toby Smith.

Bench: 16 Rhys Marshall, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Bundee Aki, 22 Robbie Robinson or Patrick Osborne.

Brumbies: 15. Jesse Mogg, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano, Clyde Rathbone, 10. Matt Toomua, Nic White, 8. Ben Mowen (capt), George Smith, Peter Kimlin, 5. Sam Carter, Scott Fardy, 3. Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore, Scott Sio.

Bench: Siliva Siliva, Ruan Smith, Fotu Auelua, Colby Faingaa, Ian Prior, Andrew Smith, Joe Tomane.

17:00 Lions vs Kings, Ellis Park, Johannesburg

Referee: Stuart Berry

Assistant referees: Jason Jaftha, Marius Jonker

Television match official: Shaun Veldsman

The dice are now well and truly loaded against the 2013 Super Rugby newcomers preserving their status for next season, after the Lions left PE last Friday with a 26-19 advantage in the two-leg promotion/relegation scrap. And with the Kings having lost prodigious points-accumulator Demetri Catrakilis to injury, and seen Director of Rugby, Alan Solomons jump ship prior this game being played, the visitors are even more up against it. The SOLD OUT signs have gone up at the 60 000 capacity Ellis Park, so Lions fans, having seemingly heeded the wakeup call that saw them banished from Super Rugby this year, will be baying for PE blood. The Kings, however, have reserved some of their most inspired performances away games, earning a 28-28 draw in Canberra and then pipping the Rebels 30-27 in Melbourne. A status quo keeps the Kings in Super Rugby, so all they need to do is win while denying the Lions a bonus point. As per the rest of the season, then, I do not see this being pretty from the Kings. Only the Force (26) registered fewer tries than the Kings’ 27, whilst the Lions will doubtless be encouraged by the fact that the Kings also leaked more tries than anyone else (69). The Lions prevailed 41-31 at Ellis Park earlier in the season, won the Vodacom Cup convincingly, enjoyed good wins over Samoa, WP, Blue Bulls, Sharks and the Kings last weekend. Much like the Brumbies in Hamilton, I think this will be a game too far for the undoubtedly gutsy Kings.

My prediction: Lions by 12

Lions: 15 Ruan Combrinck, 14 Deon Helberg, 13 Nicolaas Hanekom, 12 Dylan Des Fountain, 11 Anthony Volmink, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Derick Minnie, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Hendrik Roodt, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Martin Bezuidenhout, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg (captain).

Bench: 16 Robbie Coetzee, 17 Ruan Dreyer, 18 Willie Britz, 19 Warwick Tecklenburg, 20 Guy Cronje, 21 Marnitz Boshoff, 22 Chrysander Botha.

Kings: 15. SP Marais, 14. Hadleigh Parkes, 13. Ronnie Cooke, 12. Waylon Murray, 11. Scott van Breda, 10. George Whitehead, 9. Shaun Venter, 8. Jacques Engelbrecht, 7. Wimpie van der Walt, 6. David Bulbring, 5. Darron Nell (captain), 4. Cornell du Preez, 3. Kevin Buys, 2. Bandise Maku, 1. Schalk Ferreira

Bench: 16. Charl du Plessis, 17. Hannes Franklin, 18. Steven Sykes, 19. Devin Oosthuizen, 20. Nicolas Vergallo, 21. Wesley Dunlop, 22. Shane Gates