All that stats say that it is just too damn tough to win a quarter final away from home, and it looks like Grunt editor, Tank Lanning agrees. All the S15 teams, times, refs venues and predictions …
Well, if you cannot get pink tickets to watch just these two games of rugby, you probably should not be reading this blog! Easy as you like on Saturday morning, and even allows you to get across to that school game you have not made it to this season. Then perhaps even a club game in the arvie and back in time for family supper before taking in the pudding game that is the Cheetahs taking on the Brumbies over a strong coffee and a few rusks …
Saturday 20 July
09:35 Crusaders vs Reds
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand), Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
As said in a column this week, the log reflects the season’s form and not the current form, but in the Crusader’s case, as they have done so well in the past, their current form is seemingly on the up at just the right time. And they have a certain Richie McCaw keen for a trot in the second half. Ewen McKenzie will be itching to depart the Super Rugby scene on a high, but his side probably did not deserve to edge the Tahs last week, were scrappy against the Rebels before the Lions series, and lost to the Cheetahs and Stormers before that! Will Genia will make a difference this week though. Just not sure they will be able to hold the Saders up front, and they will need some form of parity to get into the game, lest Cooper start trying his tricks from all parts of the park and coming short. Not many international sides can boast a spine of Read, Ellis and Carter, yet here they are at AMI park for a franchise side! Throw in a world class front row, and a back three that would make even Bryan Habana nervous, and I just cannot see the Reds upsetting the applecart.
My prediction: Crusaders by 9
Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Tom Marshall, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Tom Taylor, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett:
Bench: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Luke Whitelock, 19 Richie McCaw, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tyler Bleyendaal, 22 Adam Whitelock
Reds: 15 Ben Lucas, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Ben Tapuai, 12 Jono Lance, 11 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Ed Quirk, 5 James Horwill (c), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Greg Holmes.
Bench: 16 Albert Anae, 17 Jono Owen, 18 Ed O’Donoghue, 19 Radike Samo, 20 Beau Robinson, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Luke Morahan.
Sunday 21 July
08:10 Brumbies vs Cheetahs
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Rohan Hoffmann (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)
One in of the nasty anomalies of this new Super Rugby format, these teams have yet to meet this year, but the Cheetahs did lose by a point to the Brumbies in Canberra last season after a controversial scrum penalty which was later deemed to be incorrect by referee Keith Brown. Having qualified for the finals series for the first time ever, the Cheetahs, if they can get past the nerves, should take a lot of confidence into the game after success this year in Australia against the Waratahs and Force, as well as their win last year against the Rebels in Melbourne. They can definitely win away from home, especially in Aus! The Australian Conference winners were rusty in their first match after the Lions Test window and subsequently slumped to a surprise 15-21 loss to the Force at the weekend. But in their last game before the bye last weekend, the Cheetahs were hardly stellar against the Stormers. It looked like the players came back from their time with the Boks thinking they could take on the Cape side in the lineouts and scrums, instead of playing their traditional game. The end result was that the Cheetahs were suffocated out of the game! And that tape will be like porn for Jake White! He is big on abrasive, defensive Test match type rugby. On average, they have let through only 18.4 points per game this season, which is second only to the Stormers 18.3. White has said it is a misnomer that the Cheetahs do not kick, and he is right. Every side plays for territory, but it’s what they do when in the opposition half that counts. Willie le Roux will be key, but there is no need for him to be the hero in every play. It is said that defence gets you to the finals, but attack wins you those crux games. On 43 tries for the season, making them the 5th best side, the Brumbies are no slouches on attack. The Cheetahs are chasing their first victory in five trips to Canberra … The odds, as they say, are against them.
My prediction: Brumbies by 3
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Clyde Rathbone, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen (c), 7 George Smith, 6 Peter Kimlin, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Bench: 16 Siliva Siliva, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Fotu Auelua, 19 Colby Faingaa, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Andrew Smith, 22 Joe Tomane.
Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Riaan Smit, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Lappies Labuschagne, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Rynhardt Landman, 4 Lodewyk de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Bench: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Waltie Vermeulen, 19 Boom Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Elgar Watts, 22 Rayno Benjamin.
