The Bulls are in, but could host a semi, while all 4 SA sides have a chance at a quarter final … Tank Lanning takes a look at all the possible Super Rugby permutations and combinations.
First up, a look at this year’s Bye Rounds: SANZAR introduced Split rounds because of the British and Irish Lions tour to Australia, hence only the Australian teams competing in Rounds 1 and 17, and only New Zealand and South African teams competing in Rounds 18 and 19. The SA and Kiwi sides did not receive 4 bonus points in Rounds 1 and 17, and it is the same for the Aus sides in Round 18 and 19. So the Cheetahs, who are the last team to have a normal bye in the tournament, in the final round of pool games, are the only team yet to enjoy a normal 4 point bye.
The Combined Log right now:
Chiefs Pld:14 W:11 Pts:61
Bulls Pld:14 W:11 Pts:59
Brumbies Pld:15 W:10 Pts:59
Reds Pld:15 W:9 Pts:54
Crusaders Pld:14 W:9 Pts:51
Cheetahs Pld:15 W:9 Pts:46
Waratahs Pld:15 W:8 Pts:44
Blues Pld:14 W:6 Pts:44
Sharks Pld:14 W:7 Pts:42
Stormers Pld:14 W:7 Pts:42
The Remaining fixtures:
Weekend 05 July:
Crusaders vs Chiefs
Hurricanes vs Highlanders
Cheetahs vs Blues
Kings vs Stormers
Bulls vs Sharks
Weekend 12 July
Crusaders vs Hurricanes
Rebels vs Highlanders
Blues vs Chiefs
Waratahs vs Reds
Force vs Brumbies
Sharks vs Kings
Stormers vs Bulls
The basic permutations, given that the host of options based on the various bonus points that sides could accumulate, along with the influence of points difference, would turn this post into something like War and Peace:
Bulls:
To play: Sharks and Stormers
Best case: Can top the log by winning both their last 2 games if the Chiefs lose one of theirs.
Worst case: Lose both games without a bonus point and they will be relying on the new structure to get them 3rd place on the log as the top SA team, and thus hosting a quarter final.
Cheetahs:
To play: Blues and Bye
Best case: Beat the Blues with a bonus point and they could host a quarter final on 55 points, but they would need the Reds and Crusaders to lose all their final games.
Worst case: Lose to the Blues without a bonus point and they could be out the mix completely on 50 log points.
Sharks:
To play: Bulls and Kings
Best case: Win both games with bonus points to go to 52 points, and they could sneak an away quarter final if the Crusaders, Cheetahs and Blues lose all their games.
Worst case: Lose one game and they are gone.
Stormers:
To play: Kings and Bulls
Best case: Win both games with bonus points to go to 52 points, and they could sneak an away quarter final if the Crusaders, Cheetahs, and Blues lose all their games, and the Sharks one of theirs.
Worst case: Lose one game and they are gone.
“The Bulls are in, but could host a semi, while all 4 SA sides have a chance at a quarter final …”
I think you may have forgotten about the Kings, there are 5 SA sides Tank…
But only 4 with a chance at the quarters …
Go ahead, you may forget about the Kings too.
All they are now is bush meat for the Sharks and the Stormers.
Tank can be forgiven.
If i understand correctly the Cheethas and Blues must draw for Sharks and Stormers to stand a change, because you say Cheethas and Blues must lose their remaining games but they play each other so it is likely one will win?
If blues beat cheetahs but lose last game and stormers/sharks win both their last games then they should be past the blues